Islamabad – Pakistan’s western frontier with Afghanistan has once again become the stage for one of the country’s most difficult challenges: balancing the urgent need to eliminate militant threats while safeguarding the economic lifeline of cross-border trade. This struggle has defined the relationship between the two neighbors for decades, but 2025 has brought sharper contrasts—large-scale military operations running alongside fresh efforts to expand agricultural trade.
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Military Pressure Along the Frontier
In early August, Pakistan’s military intensified its operations in the rugged districts bordering Afghanistan. Officials reported killing 33 armed fighters in a nighttime raid in Balochistan’s Zhob district, followed days later by another offensive that claimed the lives of 50 fighters over a four-day clash. Further north, in Bajaur, a limited operation displaced nearly 100,000 people, prompting the provincial government to announce cash assistance of 50,000 rupees (roughly $180) per family.
These are not small incidents. They represent sustained, large-scale campaigns designed to prevent militants from using Afghan soil as a launchpad for attacks inside Pakistan. The state’s message is clear: cross-border militancy will be met with force. Yet this security imperative collides directly with another urgent priority—protecting the fragile but vital trade corridor that runs across the same frontier.
A Surprising Trade Resilience
Despite frequent closures and political tensions, trade between Pakistan and Afghanistan showed surprising resilience in the first half of 2025. Bilateral trade touched nearly $1 billion, with Pakistan exporting $712 million worth of goods and Afghanistan sending back $277 million.
Both governments, aware of this mutual dependence, launched the “Early Harvest Program” on August 1. The initiative slashed tariffs on selected agricultural products for one year. Afghan tomatoes, grapes, pomegranates, and apples are now cheaper in Pakistani markets, while Pakistan’s mangoes, potatoes, and citrus fruits are finding more buyers across the border. The program carries a strong symbolic message: Pakistan is determined to confront terrorism without strangling legitimate trade flows.
The Fragile Nature of Border Commerce
This balancing act, however, remains delicate. The border crossings at Torkham, Chaman, and Ghulam Khan—lifelines for both nations—are vulnerable to sudden shutdowns. When violence escalates, crossings can close without notice.
One closure earlier this year stranded more than 5,000 trucks, causing an estimated $15 million in losses within days. Perishable items like fruits and vegetables often rot in long queues, while traders are pushed toward smuggling routes that increase both costs and risks. Human suffering is equally visible: in August, thousands of Afghans waited for days at the Chaman crossing, with 4,000 to 5,000 people stuck at one time. For many, the border is not just a trade route but a lifeline for family visits, medical treatment, and education.
Pakistan’s Two-Track Strategy
Faced with these realities, policymakers have adopted a two-track strategy:
- Targeted security operations – Raids and limited offensives aimed at specific militant groups rather than sweeping crackdowns, paired with compensation packages to reduce local resentment.
- Structured trade facilitation – Tariff cuts, streamlined processes, and bilateral agreements designed to keep commerce moving even during tense periods.
Officials argue that this approach avoids the mistakes of past crackdowns, which disrupted communities and deepened mistrust. With nearly $1 billion in trade during the first half of the year, Pakistan sees a sturdy foundation worth preserving.
Three Key Risks Ahead
Even with this careful balance, Islamabad faces three clear risks that could undermine its dual strategy.
Economic Targets for Militants
Armed groups understand that attacking border crossings or forcing closures can inflict massive financial pain. Each disruption weakens confidence in the trade corridor. To counter this, Pakistan needs humanitarian exemptions—special fast lanes for patients, students, and urgent cargo—to ensure critical movement continues regardless of clashes.
Permanent Diversion of Trade Routes
Repeated closures risk pushing traders toward alternate routes, particularly through Iran. Once supply chains are reoriented, they rarely return. Pakistan could lose long-term commercial influence unless it guarantees reliability at major crossings.
Communication Gaps Fuel Distrust
Unclear messaging allows harmful narratives to take root. Communities on both sides often see stricter border checks as arbitrary or anti-people. A strategic communication policy is needed to explain how raids, inspections, and temporary closures protect local populations while targeting only militants—not ordinary Afghans or Pakistanis seeking livelihoods.
The Human Side of Border Politics
Behind every truck and trade statistic lies a human story. For farmers in Kandahar, the ability to sell pomegranates in Quetta can mean the difference between profit and loss. For Pakistani citrus growers, Afghan markets provide vital income during harvest season. Truck drivers, customs agents, and daily wage laborers all depend on predictable trade.
When the border closes, the ripple effect is immediate: rising food prices in Kabul, unemployment in border towns like Chaman, and frustration among displaced families in Bajaur. This human cost underscores why Pakistan cannot rely solely on military force; a sustainable solution must include both security and economic cooperation.
Regional and International Dimensions
Pakistan’s balancing act is not isolated. Neighboring Iran is eager to expand its role as a trade partner for Afghanistan, while China has invested heavily in regional connectivity through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). If Pakistan fails to stabilize its frontier, it risks losing not only bilateral trade but also regional relevance.
The international community, particularly donors and financial institutions, is also watching closely. Successful integration of security measures with trade facilitation could position Pakistan as a model for conflict-border economies. Failure, on the other hand, risks reinforcing perceptions of instability.
Toward a Sustainable Frontier Strategy
Moving forward, Pakistan will need to strengthen its dual-track approach with several measures:
- Institutionalize border management through joint Afghan-Pakistani committees to quickly resolve closures and disputes.
- Invest in infrastructure—modern scanning systems, cold storage facilities, and digital customs clearance can reduce losses and smuggling.
- Prioritize people-to-people exchanges with student visas, medical travel permits, and business mobility programs.
- Leverage diplomacy by aligning the Early Harvest Program with broader regional initiatives, ensuring continuity even when political relations sour.
Frequently Asked Questions:
What is the main challenge Pakistan faces on its western border?
Pakistan must eliminate cross-border militancy while keeping vital trade with Afghanistan alive.
How much is Pakistan-Afghanistan trade worth in 2025?
Bilateral trade reached nearly $1 billion in the first half of 2025.
What is the Early Harvest Program?
It’s a tariff-cutting initiative launched in August 2025 to boost agricultural trade between both countries.
How do border closures affect trade?
Closures cause millions in losses, delays for thousands of trucks, and force some trade into unsafe smuggling routes.
How are local people impacted by clashes and operations?
Operations displace families, while closures raise food prices and disrupt jobs for farmers, traders, and transporters.
What strategy is Pakistan using to balance security and trade?
A two-track approach: targeted military actions paired with trade facilitation measures like tariff cuts and aid.
What risks threaten Pakistan’s strategy?
Militant attacks on crossings, traders shifting routes through Iran, and weak communication fueling mistrust.
Conclusion
Pakistan’s western frontier remains a difficult test of statecraft, where the fight against militancy collides with the urgent need to protect trade and livelihoods. The government’s two-track approach—targeted security operations alongside structured trade facilitation—offers a pragmatic path forward. Yet, success depends on keeping crossings reliable, protecting humanitarian movement, and building trust with clear communication. For Pakistan, the struggle is not just about defeating terrorism; it is about proving that security and prosperity can move hand in hand. If this balance holds, the border can shift from being a fault line of conflict to a corridor of resilience and regional growth.
